The challenging billions of people
CAMBRIDGE -- The world is in the midst of the greatest demographic
upheaval in human history. Although the human race took perhaps one
million years to reach one billion people (around the year 1800), we
have been adding successive billions every 10-20 years since 1960.
The world's population now stands at seven billion and is projected to
reach 9.3 billion by 2050. In other words, between now and 2050, the
world is likely to add to its population almost as many people as
populated the entire planet in 1950. Or think of it as adding another
China and another India. Feeding, clothing, housing, and otherwise
providing for this massive net addition to the global population is one
of the main challenges facing humankind.
If we use as our guide average material progress over the course of
centuries, it might seem that necessity will again serve as the mother
of invention, and that we will meet the population challenge, just as we
have met previous challenges, through technological and institutional
innovation. But long-term averages can mask significant volatility over
time and variation across countries. We know for certain that there is
great risk in the population growth that lies ahead, as nearly all of it
will occur in the world's most economically, politically, socially, and
environmentally fragile countries.
A failure to absorb large numbers of people into productive employment
could lead to mass suffering and myriad catastrophes. The continuation
of extreme cross-country income inequality could deter international
cooperation, stalling or even reversing globalization, despite its
potential to improve everyone's standard of living.
Rapid population growth also tends to accelerate the depletion of
environmental resources both locally and globally, and can permanently
undermine the prospects for their recovery.
Some developing countries have addressed these population challenges
well. For example, the East Asian "Tigers" cut their birth rates
precipitously in the 1970s and 1980s, and used the resulting demographic
breathing room to stunning advantage through judicious education and
health policies, sound macroeconomic management, and careful regional
and global economic engagement.
At the other end of the spectrum, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have
fared much worse developmentally, in no small measure due to their
inability to escape the crushing burden of rapid population growth and
youth dependency.
Although developing countries are the primary sites of the world's most
threatening population problems, the wealthy industrial countries face
some rather vexing problems of their own. From a purely demographic
perspective, the advanced economies' productive capacity has reached a
plateau of slightly more than two working-age people per dependent. But
that indicator is projected to plummet to 1.36 by 2050, posing a threat
to the sizable demographic dividend that these countries have enjoyed in
recent decades. Moreover, the rich countries can expect a massive
expansion in the proportion of elderly people in their populations,
owing to increased longevity, continued low fertility, and the
progression of baby-boom cohorts through the population pyramid.
Although economic performance in the context of population aging is
substantially uncharted territory, it is not hard to understand fears
about the fiscal integrity of pay-as-you-go pension and health-care
systems, and about growth slowdowns in the face of contracting workforces.
There are many policy suggestions to address fiscal sustainability and
workforce shortages already under consideration, including higher
retirement ages and mandatory contributions, together with lower
benefits. Liberalizing international migration could be another
response, though it would be unlikely to offer appreciable relief, owing
to social and political opposition to increased immigration in most
developed countries. We can, however, count on rising rates of female
labor-force participation (spurred by continued low fertility),
increased levels of effective labor as educational attainment continues
to rise, and higher savings rates in anticipation of greater longevity
and longer retirements.
In the end, it is unlikely that the worst fears associated with our
graying populations will be realized. But a great deal of analysis,
debate, behavioral adaptation, and policy reform -- in both the public
and private spheres -- will have to take place before we can be sure.
Although the issues immediately confronting developing countries are
different from those facing the rich countries, in our globalized world,
demographic challenges anywhere are demographic challenges everywhere.
And, while the challenges posed by population change are formidable,
they are most likely surmountable.
It would be irresponsible to neglect those challenges and submit
humankind, unnecessarily, to the great perils that we can already
reliably foresee.
David Bloom is professor of Economics and Demography at the Harvard
School of Public Health.
Project Syndicate
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